1010号“莫兰蒂”台风登陆地点分析     

赵惠芳  何秀恋  蔡英群  杨建东  陈川珍 《海洋预报》2012,29(1):31-35

应用区域自动站10分钟加密的风场、气压场和变压场资料,结合雷达回波资料,对2010年10号"莫兰蒂"台风登陆地点进行综合分析表明:"莫兰蒂"台风于2010年9月10日03时(北京时)左右在福建省晋江市围头-深沪之间沿岸登陆,登陆之后沿着晋江市东部镇(街)向NE移动,于3:40前后进入石狮市宝盖镇附近,然后转NNE移动,穿过石狮西部镇(街)再次进入晋江市,之后转NE方向移动,于6时前后移出晋江市。  相似文献   

Modulation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Intraseasonal Oscillation of the ITCZ: A Statistical Analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CAO Xi  HUANG Ping  CHEN Guanghu  CHEN Wen 《大气科学进展》2012,29(4):744-754

The present study investigates modulation of western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclone(TC) genesis in relation to different phases of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of ITCZ convection during May to October in the period 1979-2008.The phases of the ITCZ ISO were determined based on 30-80-day filtered OLR anomalies averaged over the region(5-20 N,120-150 E).The number of TCs during the active phases was nearly three times more than during the inactive phases.The active(inactive) phases of ISO were characterized by low-level cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation anomalies,higher(lower) midlevel relative humidity anomalies,and larger(smaller) vertical gradient anomalies of relative vorticity associated with enhanced(weakened) ITCZ convection anomalies.During the active phases,TCs tended to form in the center of the ITCZ region.Barotropic conversion from the low-level mean flow is suggested to be the major energy source for TC formation.The energy conversion mainly depended on the zonal and meridional gradients of the zonal flow during the active phases.However,barotropic conversion weakened greatly during the inactive phases.The relationship between the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity and low-level zonal flow indicates that the sign of the absolute vorticity gradient tends to be reversed during the two phases,whereas the same sign between zonal flow and the absolute vorticity gradient is more easily satisfied in the active phases.Thus,the barotropic instability of low-level zonal flow might be an important mechanism for TC formation over the WNP during the active phases of ISO.  相似文献   

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHOU Feifan  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):36-46

In this study,the impacts of horizontal resolution on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and on its identified sensitive areas were investigated for tropical cyclone predictions.Three resolutions,30 km,60 km,and 120 km,were studied for three tropical cyclones,TC Mindulle (2004),TC Meari (2004),and TC Matsa (2005).Results show that CNOP may present different structures with different resolutions,and the major parts of CNOP become increasingly localized with increased horizontal resolution.CNOP produces spiral and baroclinic structures,which partially account for its rapid amplification.The differences in CNOP structures result in different sensitive areas,but there are common areas for the CNOP-identified sensitive areas at various resolutions,and the size of the common areas is different from case to case.Generally,the forecasts benefit more from the reduction of the initial errors in the sensitive areas identified using higher resolutions than those using lower resolutions.However,the largest improvement of the forecast can be obtained at the resolution that is not the highest for some cases.In addition,the sensitive areas identified at lower resolutions are also helpful for improving the forecast with a finer resolution,but the sensitive areas identified at the same resolution as the forecast would be the most beneficial.  相似文献   

AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING CHINA     

舒守娟  许音  宋金杰  喻自凤 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(3):275-283

In order to provide an operational reference for tropical cyclone precipitation forecast,this study investigates the spatial distributions of precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) affecting China using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5(GMS5)-TBB dataset.All named TCs formed over the western North Pacific that made direct landfall over China during the period 2001-2009 are included in this study.Based on the GMS5-TBB data,this paper reveals that in general there are four types of distribution of precipitation related to landfalling TCs affecting China.(a) the South-West Type in which there is a precipitation maximum to the southwestern quadrant of TC;(b) the Symmetrical South Type in which the rainfall is more pronounced to the south side of TC in the inner core while there is a symmetrical rainfall distribution in the outer band region;(c) the South Type,in which the rainfall maxima is more pronounced to the south of TC;and(d) the North Type,in which the rainfall maxima is more pronounced to the north of TC.Analyses of the relationship between precipitation distributions and intensity of landfalling TCs show that for intensifying TCs,both the maximum and the coverage area of the precipitation in TCs increase with the increase of TC intensity over northern Jiangsu province and southern Taiwan Strait,while decreasing over Beibu Gulf and the sea area of Changjiang River estuary.For all TCs,the center of the torrential rain in TC shifts toward the TC center as the intensity of TC increases.This finding is consistent with many previous studies.The possible influences of storm motion and vertical wind shear on the observed precipitation asymmetries are also examined.Results show that the environmental vertical wind shear is an important factor contributing to the large downshear rainfall asymmetry,especially when a TC makes landfall on the south and east China coasts.These results are also consistent with previous observational and numerical studies.  相似文献   

Process‐based modeling of kilometer‐scale alongshore sandbar variability          下载免费PDF全文

D. J. R. Walstra  B. G. Ruessink  A. J. H. M. Reniers  R. Ranasinghe 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(8):995-1005

Subtidal nearshore sandbars may exhibit cyclic net offshore migration during their multi‐annual lifetime along many sandy coasts. Although this type of behavior can extend continuously for several kilometers, alongshore variations in cross‐shore bar position and bar amplitude are commonly observed. Alongshore variability is greatest when bars display km‐scale disruptions, indicative of a distinct alongshore phase shift in the bar cycle. An outer bar is then attached to an inner bar, forming a phenomenon known as a bar switch. Here, we investigate such large‐scale alongshore variability using a process‐based numerical profile model and observations at 24 transects along a 6 km section of the barred beach at Noordwijk, The Netherlands. When alongshore variability is limited, the model predicts that the bars migrate offshore at approximately the same rate (i.e. the bars remain in phase). Only under specific bar configurations with high wave‐energy levels is an increase in the alongshore variability predicted. This suggests that cross‐shore processes may trigger a switch in the case of specific antecedent morphological configurations combined with storm conditions. It is expected that three‐dimensional (3D) flow patterns augment the alongshore variability in such instances. In contrast to the observed bar behaviour, predicted bar morphologies on either side of a switch remain in different phases, even though the bars are occasionally located at a similar cross‐shore position. In short, the 1D model is not able to remove a bar switch. This data‐model mismatch suggests that 3D flow patterns are key to the dissipation of bar switches. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Variations in Frequency and Intensity of Strong Tropical Cyclones Affecting China During     

Wang Xiaoling  Ren Fumin 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(00):22-26

 Based on tropical cyclone track dataset in the western North Pacific from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), variations in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific, affecting-China TCs (ACTCs) and landfall TCs (LTCs) achieving a typhoon intensity during 1957-2004 were studied. Frequencies of strong tropical cyclones showed significant decreasing trends from 1957 to 2004 and the linear trend was much greater when the intensity was stronger. There was no linear trend in the portion of strong tropical cyclones achieving a typhoon (TY) intensity, while those reaching a strong typhoon (STY) and a super typhoon (SuperTY) intensity showed decreasing trends during 1957-2004. The maximum intensities of TCs, ACTCs and LTCs all decreased during the period of 1957-2004. The mean intensities of TCs and ACTCs displayed decreasing trends and the mean intensity of LTCs achieving a TY intensity also showed a decreasing trend.  相似文献   

TRMM海表降水率同化在热带气旋Danas(2001) 数值模拟中的应用研究     

马雷鸣  端义宏  梁旭东  王栋梁  秦曾灏  曾智华 《海洋学报》2005,27(6):16-25

研究了TRMM/TMI海表降水率资料的四维变分同化在热带气旋(TC)数值模拟中的作用.使用中尺度气象模式MM5设计了若干数值试验模拟了TC Danas(2001)由热带低压初生到台风生成的发展过程.在满足MM5模式动力约束的前提下,将TRMM海表降水率资料直接同化进入较高分辨率(18 km)的模式初始场.结果表明,使用MM5模式的4D-VAR同化系统直接同化TRMM/TMI海表降水率资料是可行的.这种做法提高了TRMM资料的利用率,不仅在模式初始场中加入了更多实测信息,而且避免了两次同化(1DVAR+4DVAR)可能引起的误差.直接同化TRMM资料通过调整气压、温度、湿度等要素初始场,改善了模式对热带气旋结构(如暖心、涡度、散度)的描述和降水的模拟.在此基础上,同化不仅改进了对Danas强度的模拟,而且成功地模拟了热带气旋环境场的演变过程,因而改进了路径的模拟.  相似文献   

台风登陆衰减后造成降水加强的概况   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

姚丽娜  曾明剑  韩桂荣  韦晋  赵凯 《气象科学》2013,33(1):77-82

对1965-2008年101例登陆台风衰减后3d内仍存在较强降水的天气过程,运用客观分离方法及其改进方案,分离提取了台风降水(Tropical Cyclone Precipitation;TCP),结果表明:即使登陆台风衰减为热带低压或停编后,因台风系统的存在而产生高强度降水是一种普遍现象,仍旧是预报服务中需要高度关注的问题.采用气候趋势系数和功率谱等方法得到TCP及台风的气候特征:台风衰减点的位置分布具有很强的区域性,与南岭、武夷山脉的走势大致吻合;台风衰减后降水并非单纯性减少,随着时间的推移,空间分布具有向北、向西扩散的特点,特别是中纬度地区的江汉一江淮一带,仍然是防灾减灾的重点.对于衰减后降水反而加强的台风,防御重点可以有针对性地对登陆华南类和登陆华东类两类路径的台风展开.  相似文献   

强台风海葵登陆前后强度变化的观测分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

钱燕珍  高拴柱  黄思源  杜坤  郭建民  郭宇光 《气象》2013,39(10):1265-1274

1211号台风海葵强度强,在近海及登陆前后中、日、美三个国家的业务定强差别较大。云图分析“海葵”强度强,近海后云顶亮温长时间在-70℃以下。雷达资料表明“海葵”登陆前后,结构对称,眼区清晰,范围增大。登陆点附近沿海测站出现了长时间的强大风,过程13级及以上阵风共持续了26 h,东矶、大陈、石浦最大风速的极大值分别是：46.9、39.4和36.8 m·s-1。风场垂直分布差别500 m以内普遍在7~8 m·s-1。这些陆基观测资料表明“海葵”可能达到了强台风标准,中央气象台定强是合理的。近海或登陆台风强度的确定在使用Dvorak技术的基础上,还应更多地参考陆基探测资料。  相似文献   

登陆华南热带气旋强度变化与大尺度环流的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

于润玲  余晖  端义宏 《南京气象学院学报》2013,(5):619-625

应用UK再分析资料,采用合成分析方法,对比分析了登陆华南的登陆前迅速增强的TC（Rapid Intensifying TC,简称RITC）和迅速减弱的TC（Rapid FillingTC,简称RFTC）登陆前24h的大尺度环流背景特征。结果表明：从外流、入流强度和范围上看,RITC的低空入流和高空外流均明显强于RFTC,两类TC高空外流强度的差异比低空入流明显,RITC的次级环流径向范围大;从外流垂直伸展高度上看,RITC的平均外流主要集中在500hPa以上,而RFFC的平均外流比较分散,向下伸展到850hPa;从高空流场配置看,RITC上空除西北象限外均有较强外流,而RVrC仅在东北象限有较强外流,相应的RITC和RVrC的高空辐散在范围和强度上均有明显的差异,其中RITC的高空辐散明显强于RFTC;强烈的西南季风水汽输送是登陆华南的TC登陆前突然加强的先兆条件,RITC的对流活动明显比RFTc活跃;RITC的纬向风垂直切变比RFTC小,有利于RITC的强度增强。  相似文献